There appears to be an ever-present fear on the part of the Japanese people of the possibility of Russian aggression in the near future. This attack, they think, might come from within, through means of the steady infiltration of Communistic ideas. This propaganda has already taken root along the Korean border in Manchuria. The Soviets have been gaining in strength for some time, and have been gathering along the Siberian front. Concern lest Japan should again be compelled to hold in check the advance of the Russian bear, on the Asiatic continent, has gained ground. The chaotic condition of China, together with the ever-present efforts of the Chinese authorities in Manchuria to freeze out all Japanese economic and political interests in Manchuria, has been a constant and continuous source of friction between the Chinese and Japanese authorities. Sooner or later this question, they hold, will have to be settled, and settled in favor of Japan, for Japan knows that in the coming conflict with Russia, or any other power, the power that is in. control of the rich mineral and natural resources of Manchuria is the one that will presumably be victorious. Manchuria is therefore, to the Japanese, considered their first line of defense.
"Japan's position in Manchuria has been regarded by the Japanese as their first line of defense, since they gained a foothold on the continent of Asia. This is because Japan's objective enemy is Russia—Soviet Russia as well as Czarist Russia. At one moment Japan and Russia are at peace, at another in alliance, again working together against China—but neither can ever believe that there is room for both in East Asia." 1
And again, in "Storm Over Asia," Paul Hutchinson writes:
"The point of conflict between communism and capitalism is very likely to be the Russo-Japanese border. Lenin laid it down as a cardinal doctrine that there must be at least one major struggle between the two systems before the capitalistic states will be content to let a Communist state establish itself as a world power. There are reasons for believing that he was right. And the common Japanese conviction that, to save the empire, it will be necessary to overcome the Russian threat, makes it far too likely that, when the explosion comes, it will come on Russia's eastern front. . . . Unless the two nations can be induced to withdraw from contact with each other, particularly in such a hazily delimited area as northern Manchuria, this future conflict must be regarded as a likelihood. In both Tokio and Moscow it is so regarded." 2
Tokio has felt, therefore, that the first step toward averting a national catastrophe is to make her first line of defense secure and impregnable against attack on either her northern, southern, or western fronts in Manchuria.
Japan's Viewpoint
Japan feels that she has a perfect right to, and is entitled to, special privileges in Manchuria. At the close of her war with China in 1895 she virtually secured both economic and political control of Manchuria. But Russia, aided by Germany and supported by France, forced Japan to return Manchuria to China. Japan was in no position to oppose the demands of these three powers, and so reluctantly released her grip on Manchuria. But, to her chagrin, she saw Russia move forward and within a few years make herself the undisputed master of Manchuria. Then began preparations for the conflict,—which now seemed inevitable,—with Russia. The clash came in 1904. This Russo-Japanese war cost Japan over 200,000 lives and over 2,000,000,000 gold yen. Due to the determined attitude of President Roosevelt, who received the Nobel Peace Prize of 1905, Japan agreed to withdraw her demands for indemnity. She did, however, secure tremendous rights and interests in Manchuria, and since that time has invested over 2,147,000,000 yen in the economic development of Manchuria.
"After all its cost in blood and treasure this region became to Japan a combined Monroe doctrine, Panama Canal, and battlefield of Gettysburg. Just as the United States might be unwilling to arbitrate certain questions concerning the Monroe Doctrine, her national interests or national honor with Mexico or the countries of Latin America, so Japan felt herself unwilling to arbitrate questions that concerned her very economic life as a world power." 3
When it is remembered that the Western powers have conquered over seven eighths of the earth's surface, that Great Britain has increased her original size over one hundred times, France over twenty times, and that the United States has acquired many possessions, is it to be wondered that Japan in the East should endeavor to do likewise? "Is not what is sauce for the goose," asks K. K. Kawakami, "sauce for the gander?" "Is there anything wrong," asks Young Japan, "in these ambitions to become a world power of the first rank? And are not all great powers forced by the law of self-preservation to look ahead and safeguard the source of their supplies?"
"Japan must not fall. If she is not to fall, she must become a greater Japan. In view of the situation of the world, Japan could not continue to exist as she is. But she has in her the qualities of an ideal state; she must not sink into ruin, but must rise. If she is to save her Asiatic neighbors, if she is to maintain and promote peace in this part of the globe, Japan must establish a hegemony of Asia and become strong enough to hold her stand against the Western powers.
"But the attainment of this aim is by no means easy. Our country is limited in area; our population is small; our natural resources are meager. In spite of all these limitations, we are to aspire for the hegemony of the Orient. Our only resort is the firmness of national purpose. Someday Japan may find herself standing alone amidst the Western powers. But if we are afraid of that eventuality, no great thing can be achieved.
"The physical powers of 70,000,000 Japanese must work with the greatest efficiency. It is necessary for the whole nation to become united, to be 'mobilized' for the purposes of expansion." 4
Recent events in the Orient are a fulfillment of the above prediction. Japan is in a position today where she can stand and is standing along with the Western powers. Surely the prophecy of Joel, "Let the weak say, I am strong," is being fulfilled in our day.
(To be continued in December)
1 "The Tinder Box of Asia," by George E. Sokolsky, p. 142. Doubleday, Doran & Co.
2 "Storm Over Asia," by Paul Hutchinson, pp. 112, 113. Henry Holt & Co.
3 "The World's Danger Zone," by Sherwood Eddy, p. 39. Farrar and Rinehart.
4 "What Japan Thinks," by K. K. Kawakami, p. 60. The Macmillan Company.