Who are(n't) we baptizing?

The mission of the Seventh-day Adventist Church in North America is to proclaim the gospel to the various peoples in its territory to call upon men and women to accept Christ and be discipled in His church. Theme programs like Harvest 90 attempt to mobilize clergy and laity alike in a thrust to use all available methods toward the goal of winning and establishing new converts.

But not all approaches work equally well with all people. Thus as congregations, conferences, evangelists, and others design outreach strategies for a particular territory, they need to consider the following questions: 1. What types of people live in the targeted area? 2. How receptive are these people to the Adventist message? 3. What programs should be targeted to specific segments to maximize our chances for success? 4. How can the targeted segments be most effectively and efficiently reached?

To attempt answers to these questions, we must first know the types of people who are attracted to the Adventist message. The Institute of Church Ministry (ICM) assembled a research task force of church planners and marketing professionals and undertook a study to profile all Adventist households as well as households containing newly baptized adults. This effort was carried out under the sponsorship of the North American Division and the two North American publishing houses. The results were published in 1986 as The North American Division Marketing Program, volume 1. A summary article appeared in the February 1987 issue of Ministry.

While this study contained a rather comprehensive profile of the total Adventist membership in the United States,* the data on new converts were somewhat incomplete. So a second phase was launched with the goal of obtaining a more complete profile of those who have been receptive to the church's message.

Through advances in the use of census data it is now possible to profile large lists of people by matching their street addresses with what census compilers have learned about the residents of those locations. Such an approach is referred to as geodemographic profiling. It is founded on the belief that different segments of society exist and that people with similar lifestyles and socioeconomic status tend to live nearer to each other than to dissimilar people in other segments. Thus knowing where someone lives gives us insights into which segment of society he or she occupies. It also permits an organization to choose a means of reaching people in a way tailored to their particular interests.

The study

There are several companies that provide geodemographic profiling services. ICM chose the Donnelley Marketing Information Service (DMIS). DMIS's model, ClusterPlus, was developed through analysis of the more than 1,600 variables included in their composite file based on the 1980 census and supplemented by additional data such as telephone directories and automobile registrations. This process resulted in the identification of 47 distinct clusters or subsets of the U.S. population.

The 47 clusters have been ranked from highest (No. 1) to lowest (No. 47) based on DMIS's Socioeconomic Status Indicator score. These 47 clusters are also combined into 10 multifactor cluster groups for broader marketing applications.

ICM submitted to DMIS a computer tape containing the addresses of those baptized into the Adventist Church from 1982 through 1985. During this period there were more than 120,000 baptisms in 3,500 local congregations in 50 local conferences. We eventually collected the baptismal records from all 50 conferences for three of the years and from 46 conferences for the fourth year.

We then purged the list of any names of those whose age at baptism was under 18 so that we could consider converts unmixed with biological growth. We also eliminated any duplicate addresses, since the unit of analysis is the household rather than the individual. The final list contained 55,102 addresses.

DMIS appended to each address on the computer tape the U.S. Census code for the specific census tract in which the household is located, a process called geocoding. Geocoded households were then assigned to one of the 47 cluster numbers. DMIS was able to geocode and clustercode 45,208 households success fully.

DMIS then calculated the percentage of SDA new member households falling into each of the 47 clusters as well as the percentage of total U.S. households for each of the 47 clusters. A penetration index was computed for each cluster by dividing the percentage of new members in that cluster by the percentage of U.S. households for that cluster and multiplying the result by 100. This penetration index was used as a measure of performance by which the 47 clusters were ranked. Clusters with performance levels above average have penetration indexes in excess of 100, and clusters with average or below-average performance levels have penetration indexes of 100 or less.

The source of our baptisms

The table on page 7 profiles the type of people in each cluster and ranks the clusters in order of the church's success in winning converts from that cluster. Exhibit 1 displays the same information graphically, but the clusters are left in numerical order. Exhibit 2 shows our success among various clusters by number of households rather than penetration index.

Our best success is with cluster S46--the next to the lowest on the socioeconomic scale. It has the following demographic characteristics: poorly educated, very low income, Hispanic families with children, apartment dwellers, unskilled, high unemployment. Cluster S46 has a penetration index of 346, which indicates a concentration of Seventh-day Adventist new convert households nearly three and one-half times the average across the United States.

The poorest-performing cluster is S23 described as nonmobile married couples old homes, farm areas. Its penetration index of 17 means that new converts are represented in this cluster at only about one sixth of the average across the United States. More comprehensive descriptions of the type of people in each cluster can be found in the published study.

Implications for church growth

Social polarisation. The five clusters we are penetrating most deeply are S46, S36, S47, S44, and S45. All are near the bottom of the economic scale. The only clusters in the top half where we are penetrating above our own overall average are S12--ranked eleventh--and S22--ranked fifteenth. In short, we are winning our converts largely from the lower socioeconomic levels.

It is not that the poor are of less value in God's sight, or that we should not be working to win as many as possible. But at least two problems present themselves. The first volume of our report revealed that the total Adventist member ship in the United States is considerably more upscale. Because of our heavy emphasis on education, we have many members in the professions. Children from our working-class families are through education, upwardly mobile and become members of the middle class when they establish their own homes. Thus the church may become socially polarized between its first-generation and later-generation adherents.

Even more crucial is the awareness that we are not reaching the middle and upper classes. Though we have many from these classes already within our congregations (most of them home-grown), they have not been able to make the Adventist message and lifestyle appealing to their peers outside the church. This situation points up the critical need to devise strategies to reach those on the upper rungs of the socioeconomic ladder. "Today God is seeking for souls among the high as well as the lowly. . . . Special efforts should be made for these souls. . . . God calls for earnest, humble workers, who will carry the gospel to the higher class" (The Acts of the Apostles, pp. 139, 140).

Ethnic disparity. Closely related to the implication above is the uneven growth rate among various ethnic groups. Clusters S36 and S46, which have large His panic populations, have an average penetration index of 331. Clusters S43, S44, S45, and S47, which are composed principally of Blacks, have an average penetration index of 203. The other 41 clusters, all of which have Caucasian majorities, have an average penetration index of only 83.

The good news is that ethnic minorities, especially immigrants, provide a fertile field for rapid church growth. Every advantage should be taken of these opportunities. The bad news is that we are increasingly ineffective in our outreach to Caucasians. Denominational leaders will need to give priority to discovering new strategies that appeal to this group in an age of increasing secularization.

Mobility. For highly mobile clusters (those where more than 50 percent of the population changed residence during a recent five-year period), we have a success index of 122 versus a 78 index for low-mobility clusters. Thus mobility remains one of the most distinguishing characteristics of clusters where our success has been greatest. This is not surprising, given those studies that indicate that people who are new to an area are most approachable and most inclined to make changes in their religious affiliation. Targeting groups with high mobility is one way to increase church growth.

Age groups. Our success rate decreases as age increases; we have a 122 success index with clusters where the median age is under 35, a 112 index with clusters where the median age is 36-45, and a 73 index where the median household age is greater than 45. Younger people are typically more open to change and thus provide better prospects for outreach activities.

Occupation. We have been largely unsuccessful in attracting professional people to the church; our greatest successes have been with blue-collar workers and the unemployed. Our success index for professional people is only 64 compared to the 115 index for blue-collar workers.

Education. As would be expected, most of those clusters where we have been successful have not traditionally been well educated. There are, however, a few segments of society with higher pro portions having a college education that have above average penetration indexes. Our success index for clusters with a college education is only 79 far below our 123 index for those clusters where a high school diploma or less is the norm.

Income. Again, as expected, our success index decreases as income increases. The index for those in the upper third of the income bracket is 71; for the middle third the index is 94; and for those in the lower third it rises to 148.

Application to local areas

A careful study of this marketing research as reported in volume 2 of The NAD Marketing Program (1988) will give the reader an understanding of marketing concepts, detailed information on those joining the Adventist Church in recent years, and some insight into the various strategies for approaching different segments of the population. But how can all of this be applied in the local territory of a congregation? In other words, how can we use our understanding of where we have had success in attracting new members to answer the four questions posed at the beginning of this article for specific local areas?

To aid in answering these questions, the Institute of Church Ministry has created a consultation service that can provide an analysis of the population of a particular territory. ICM purchases two reports from the Donnelley Corporation. The information contained in them is computerized and sent to a marketing consultant who prepares a series of graphs and interpretive data on the re quested territory. ICM provides the client with a comprehensive report based on these data. In addition to the actual DMIS reports and an overall description of how to understand and apply the consultant's report, the following services are provided:

1. A profile of the inhabitants of the territory according to the concentration of people from each of the 47 clusters, and an expanded description of the life styles that are present.

2. An evaluation of each "piece of geography" analyzed in terms of its potential for church growth. This is created by matching the area in question with the profile of new believers to determine if there are many people living in it who are in the same clusters in which the church has had its greatest success in attracting new members.

3. Suggestions for targeting specific programs to particular areas. Where a heavy concentration of clusters in which we have been successful exists, traditional approaches are suggested. Areas with low indexes of potential for traditional methods may still be ripe for unconventional means of presenting the church's message.

4. A list of the number of names available on a mailing list for each cluster within the designated area(s). This will allow the user to direct mailings to specific target groups.

Using the reports

Testimony from pastors indicates that these reports have proved quite useful in the field. Full information on securing this marketing service, including costs involved, can be obtained by calling the Institute of Church Ministry (616) 471-3575 at Andrews University. Potential and actual users would do well to study the background report on which this article is based. Because the initial printing of volume 1 has been exhausted, ICM has decided to offer both volumes in one book. The NAD Marketing Program, containing both volumes 1 and 2, comes in a loose-leaf notebook. In addition to detailed information, charts, exhibits, and suggestions arising out of both phases of the research, it includes the following features:

1. The complete DMIS reports for both phases of the study.

2. A special profile of new members baptized into the church in California.

3. An expanded description of the lifestyles represented in each of the 47 clusters.

4. An actual example of the marketing report that the consultants at ICM prepare for those requesting analysis of territories.

It is our hope and prayer that employing the marketing methods painstakingly developed by the business community will lead to increased success in presenting our message to the varied peoples of North America. Granted, scientific methods cannot take the place of the influence of the Holy Spirit. But the Spirit was not given as a seal of approval on ignorance and hap hazard ways of working. Rather He blesses our intelligent, informed efforts with success.